COP15—To Be or Not to Be? That is the Question
As many of the world’s leaders arrive in Copenhagen to try to seal a climate deal, the signals emerging regarding progress from COP15 are mixed. Yesterday, the negotiating process was subject to an “unexpected stop,” according to Yvo de Boer, the United Nation’s top climate official and it has indeed been a week of stops and starts as even on Monday, informal talks between the COP15 presidency and developing countries ended a daylong boycott of negotiations, which was apparently caused by controversy over the Kyoto Protocol. There has also been much public talk by those involved of “posturing” and “placing blame on others.” On the other hand, the Danish hosts are said to be preparing a new compromise draft and many of the countries involved have already brought forward substantive voluntary commitments to the table including, for example, Japan’s offer of a total of 15 billion U.S. dollars for climate aid for developing countries through 2012.
The Issues
Many of the issues that have arisen were not necessarily unexpected and include the following in summary:
Emissions
There is a sizeable gulf between the commitments of industrialized nations and what environmentalists and poorer nations would like to see—in particular, a reduction of 40% or more in GHG emissions by 2020. Contrast that to the EU offer to cut by 20% and the U.S. offer to cut by 3-4 %.
Climate Aid
Another large gap between the aid currently offered by richer countries to help developing nations adjust to the impact of global warming and migrate to clean energy (and what most experts agree is actually needed), and developing countries are pressing for.
Monitoring
As was anticipated, a proposal to create a global monitoring agency with powers to levy sanctions against countries not meeting their future obligations doesn’t sit well with some countries including China.
Legal Framework
There is yet an added complication around having to pursue a multi-track approach whereby some countries currently governed by the Kyoto protocol will be handled separately from others who are likely to be included under a separate package. Obligation levels between these will likely be different and some countries favor voluntary goals only.
One area in which progress does appear to have been made is on the preservation of rainforests. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said that the United States and five other countries had pledged 3.5 billion dollars over the next three years to a program aimed at protecting rainforests, with the US portion of the commitment equaling one billion dollars. The other countries involved in the agreement are Australia, France, Japan, Norway and Britain.
A Lot of Work Left to Do
119 heads of state and governments are heading to, or have now arrived in Denmark, including President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a large number of U.S. senators. It would appear that they have much work left to do at this point to come to any kind of agreement that isn’t simply a weak compromise. Many observers have expected COP15 to produce a step forward, even if only in the form of a political deal designed to keep the process moving and to provide the United States a framework on which to act politically. However, given that this event takes place against a back drop of difficult economic and political climates in many of the countries involved, including the United States, success, however it is defined, is less than certain.
“Climategate” Lingers
Meanwhile, the lingering impact of “Climategate” still smolders as a UK newspaper reported that a Russian investigation into the affair suggests that much Russian weather data was ignored by the British University researchers in favor of only those stations showing temperature gains-many of which were located close to urban centers or had relocated over the years. Also, The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has apparently issued a “Litigation Hold Notice” to its various sub-departments asking them to retain any documents pertaining to the Climatic Research Unit at University of East Anglia as they apparently investigate usage of DOE funding by those researchers.
Summary
As COP15 is in its penultimate day, it would seem that there is much left to discuss and agree by the politicians now arriving in Copenhagen. While there certainly does seem to be a willingness to gain some form of agreement, it may be that the divide on the key issues are still too broad to complete the process at COP15, leading to, at best, some form of interim political agreement of intent to continue negotiations. On the other hand, “where there is a will there is a way” and there may still be time left to produce something substantive.
